🎾Australian Open 2026: Tricky First-Round Matches and Betting Traps💰
Players at the Australian Open should expect medium-paced hard courts, very similar to what we usually see in Adelaide. Forecasts suggest that the first week should bring comfortable conditions around 27°C, but later on, true Australian heat may arrive, possibly pushing temperatures close to 40°C.
With that in mind, let’s jump straight into a few first-round matches that caught my attention — not necessarily because they are easy to bet on, but because they feel interesting, tricky, or potentially deceptive.
Fery vs Cobolli
Cobolli should, over time, show his higher quality as a player. That said, odds hovering around 1.40 feel a bit high to me.
The reason behind this price level is likely a combination of factors: Fery comes through qualification and will be match-ready, while Cobolli hasn’t played a truly competitive singles match this season outside of team events and exhibitions.
This is one of those matches I’d rather skip from a betting perspective.
Kecmanovic vs Etcheverry
Odds in the region of 1.70–1.75 on Etcheverry immediately caught my eye. I’ve had the chance to watch both players recently, and honestly, Etcheverry impressed me more in terms of overall game.
He nearly took down Musetti in preparation, and he also leads the head-to-head 2–1, with both wins coming on hard courts.
If I had to put something on my ticket early in the tournament, this would be one of the matches I’d seriously consider.
Nava vs Jacquet
A fairly even matchup, but if I had to lean one way, I’d be looking more toward the outsider here. I don’t really see a strong reason for Nava being priced as the favorite across most markets.
Jacquet already beat him on hard courts last year. The only real question mark is his recent retirement due to a shoulder issue. If you’re comfortable with that risk, odds above two may start to look interesting.
Schoolkate vs Moutet
Prices around 1.30–1.34 on Moutet are a clear pass for me. Sure, he can win this match, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable risking money at that level.
Moutet hasn’t played yet this season, while Schoolkate will have strong crowd support and has shown he can be uncomfortable for left-handers.
This could easily turn into a multi-set drama.
Cerundolo vs Thompson
Personally, I wouldn’t go against the home player here, but at the same time, Thompson’s odds don’t seem to offer much value across the board.
His current form isn’t strong enough to rule out lapses in concentration, and last year all of his Grand Slam matches against left-handers went to at least four sets.
Zverev vs Diallo
I have no issue with Zverev being such a heavy favorite. Diallo shouldn’t trouble him too much.
That said, very low odds are simply not my style, so I’ll stay away here.
Bublik vs Brooksby
The market has approached this matchup quite cautiously, and I can understand why. Bublik has improved a lot, but Grand Slam tennis is still where his weaknesses tend to appear.
Best-of-five matches demand focus and patience, and that’s not always Bublik’s strongest side. He has also lost to Brooksby on hard courts in the past.
This is a match I won’t put on my ticket, but I’ll definitely sit down and watch.
Berrettini vs De Minaur
One of the most talked-about first-round matches. Berrettini hasn’t played yet this season, while De Minaur comes in sharper and full of confidence.
Their head-to-head is balanced, but current form clearly favors De Minaur. From a betting point of view, I’m perfectly happy to just observe.
Khachanov vs Michelsen
Personally, I expected Khachanov to be a bigger favorite. Michelsen is young, fearless, and already sitting close to the top 30.
Khachanov is almost a magnet for long Grand Slam matches. More than half of his Slam matches last year went over 3.5 sets.
If I were looking for a betting angle here, I’d be much more comfortable targeting a longer match rather than a straight winner.
Mannarino vs Hijikata
This feels like a classic early-round trap. Hijikata is fit, motivated, and backed by the crowd, but Mannarino is exactly the kind of player who likes to surprise when people stop believing in him.
At his age, Mannarino clearly saved energy earlier in the season. That alone makes me cautious about writing him off.
Final Thoughts
Early rounds at the Australian Open are not about forcing bets. They’re about watching closely, understanding conditions, and recognizing which players are ready — and which aren’t.